Report - 2022 Edition: Annual benchmarks and Long-term impacts

This report will provide you with 2020 vs. 2021 energy and climate data benchmarks, a detailed analysis on “The European gas crisis, what consequences should we expect?” and an exclusive interview with Pr. Manfred HAFNER regarding the future evolution of the global energy situation and the related measures.

28 Jun 2022

The post-pandemic economic recovery implied higher energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2021, exceeding the 2019 levels. From now, what will be the aftermath of the major game changers that occurred recently?

Our Global Energy Trends publication provides you with an in-depth analysis performed by our experts, leveraging our unique databases.

• Globally, economic activity and energy demand in 2021 exceed 2019 levels (respectively +1.3% and +0.4%), and the CO₂ emissions rebound in 2021 (+5.9%) more than offsets the 2020 drop (-4.9%)
• In Europe, the energy inflation is reaching unprecedented levels in 2022, with the Ukrainian war adding pressure to already tight markets. In the short-term, oil price is expected to decrease, while European gas prices are not.
• Nevertheless, there is room for strong reductions in gas final consumption.

2020 VS 2021 comparison of key energy figures for G20 countries

G20 countries account for 80% of global energy consumption

*CO₂ emissions from energy combustion (> 80% of CO₂ emissions)

Key Takeaways:

• The effects of health measures and the economic crisis were felt mainly in the sectors of services, transport, and carbon-intensive electricity generation.
• New RES capacities (wind, solar PV) have been growing despite the crisis.
• By the end of 2021, energy efficiency and decarbonisation indicators returned to previous trends, far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

Energy-related CO₂ emissions (%/year) in G20 countries

Source: Enerdata

• The 2021 CO₂ emissions level is 1% below their 2019 level, taking the opposite direction from the 2°C path to reach the Paris Agreement targets.
• Economic rebound after Covid-19 led to a strong demand in raw materials and energy.

Projection of European gas price and brent price from forward price

Source: Enerdata; Energymarketprice, as of 14^th of June 2022

• The Ukrainian crisis adds pressure to already tight markets
• The EU has trapped itself into a natural gas dependency on imports, especially from Russia
• Addressing energy consumption with efficiency and sufficiency measures is a key option for the EU, which has not been significantly leveraged so far